What Do I Know? - Life Lessons
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Is when Chloe was born
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In the absent of news, stocks, feeds, games, entertainment, I’ve find my smartphone almost useless unless I needed something
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I did not like rap, country, metal music, but I try to have this exercise to analyze and determine if this would change my mind.
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Chloe said this when I was 45 and she’s 9
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At target, Chloe peed her pants
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It's also a developmental arc. Early in life, originality feels like invention. Later, it feels like selection.
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Conflict of Interests, Career risks; consensus future = do the opposite; news is not prospectus opportunities; in favor of what's happening, by design they favor what they think should be happening based on speculative information.
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Success in investing comes from steady, incremental progress.
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Start early and let compounding do the heavy lifting.
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Forecasting is dangerous; base decisions on probabilities.
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Respect the market’s movements over personal biases.
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The ability to hold investments through volatility is key.
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Focus on the magnitude of gains versus losses.
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Outperform by thinking differently and deeper than the crowd.
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Investing is about managing risk, not guessing the future.
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Invest for the long term and avoid emotional decisions.
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Focus on long-term wealth building, not short-term noise
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Patience is a critical component of successful investing.
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Distinguish between cost and intrinsic worth.
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Discipline and emotional control are vital.
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Avoid chasing returns; optimize your current portfolio.
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Understand your investments deeply.
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Contrarian thinking often leads to superior returns.
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Focus on preservation of capital.
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You live by what you believe in.
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Fundamental of geometry of thinking.
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Optimize the small parts, but always check if the whole system benefits.
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Build systems that correct themselves through measurement, aka Feedback Loop
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Optimization is root of all innovation.
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Create a simplified world to experiment (Simulation / Modeling) before committing.
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Test extreme inputs to understand system behavior.
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Instead of asking “How do I succeed?”, ask “How do I fail?” — then avoid it. Works well in risk management, investing, decision making.
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Start rough, then repeatedly improve precision.
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Analogical Reasoning - Solve by comparing to similar problems in different domains.
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DMAIC and DMADV. Form a theory, test it with data, refine.
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Identify recurring structures from prior experience.
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Ignore irrelevant details and operate at the right conceptual level.
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Map your problem into a problem that is already solved.
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Identify what is limiting progress and optimize that first. Identify and address the bottleneck first
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Use approximate rules to explore large solution spaces efficiently. You accept imperfection in exchange for speed.
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Start with the desired end state and reason backward to today. Play deterministic games like Chess, think about the winning condition and work backwards.
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First Principles Thinking - Reduce the problem to fundamental truths and build upward. You stop copying solutions and start inventing them.
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Break a large problem into smaller independent pieces, solve each, then combine. Sometimes the challenge looks daunting. By breaking it down, it changes perspective and into workable problems.
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The process of elimination was a method of determining an answer by removing other possibilities until only one remained. When doing multiple choice questions, once you eliminated the wrong answers, the ones left are likely the correct ones.
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